GAME CHANGER: Republicans Closing Voter Registration Gap in Pennsylvania, Eyes on Key Suburban County

by | Jul 9, 2024 | News

Republicans in Pennsylvania are on the cusp of overtaking Democrats in voter registration in Bucks County and other key regions of the state, which could play a pivotal role in the 2024 presidential election. This shift is part of a broader trend across the state, which remains a central battleground this election cycle specifically since it was won by former President Trump in 2016, but won by President Biden in 2020.

Bucks County, located north of Philadelphia, has 197,950 registered Democrats compared to 197,669 registered Republicans, leaving Democrats with a slender 281-voter advantage. This margin has dramatically narrowed from four years ago, when Democrats held a more than 10,000-voter lead. Bucks County has historically voted for Democrats in every presidential election since 1992, but recent voter registration trends indicate a growing competitiveness in the area.

Pennsylvania’s overall political landscape has seen significant changes, with Republicans gaining ground in rural and western parts of the state while Democrats consolidate support in suburban areas, particularly around Philadelphia. Since 2020, counties such as Beaver and Berks have flipped to Republican majorities in voter registration, despite historically voting for Democrats.

The state’s shifting voter registration numbers reflect a larger realignment within the electorate. “The Republican Party has shifted away from traditional conservatism into a more populist version of it, which speaks to traditional Democratic values like made-in-America union labor,” said Sam Chen, a GOP political consultant based in the Lehigh Valley told Spotlight PA.

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Democrats, on the other hand, are seeing an influx of highly educated and wealthy transplants in the Philadelphia suburbs, which has bolstered their numbers in those areas.

Door knocking guru Cliff Maloney, president of the Pennsylvania Chase, as well as grassroots activist Scott Presler, both celebrated major updates in Republicans whose doors had been knocked by activists regarding mail-in ballots requests reported as well as major fundraising milestones to help boost efforts to drive Republican voters to action one way other another by November.

Pennsylvania has seen Democrats’ registration edge over Republicans shrink from a 12% advantage in April 2008 to about a 4% advantage in April 2024. Meanwhile, the number of people registered as independents or under a third party has grown from 11% of total registered voters in 2008 to 15% this year .

Political consultants caution that while registration trends can signal the electorate’s mood, they can’t predict the exact outcome of elections in a closely divided state like Pennsylvania. “The 2024 election in Pennsylvania is going to be won on party turnout and swaying independent voters,” said J. Wesley Leckrone, a professor and chair of political sciences at Widener University said in an interview with Newsweek.

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